A demand shock for nuclear power
After the 2011 Fukushima accident, the nuclear industry stalled for years. Today, soaring electricity demand from AI data centres, robotics and advanced manufacturing — combined with carbon reduction goals — is making nuclear power attractive again. US power demand is expected to grow over the next decade at five times the pace of the previous decade.
The US Department of Energy is taking steps to accelerate new nuclear construction and to develop next-generation reactors and fuels. Small modular reactors (SMRs) could change the shape of the industry — but many of them require special fuels that the United States does not yet manufacture at scale.
HALEU is the binding constraint
Nine of the ten reactor designs supported under DOE's Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program require high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU). That concentration of demand against a thin supply base helps explain why developers are signing fuel supply agreements years ahead of first power, and why new enrichment projects in the US and abroad are being watched so closely.
Centrus Energy is the only company currently holding a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission licence, with deployable gas centrifuge technology, capable of enriching uranium to both LEU and HALEU. The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, which takes full effect in 2028, adds urgency to building domestic capacity.
A different fuel, a different market
Not all nuclear fuel demand looks the same. BWX Technologies has spent five decades building naval reactors and nuclear fuel for the US Navy, and is the sole manufacturer of naval reactor and fuel for the naval nuclear propulsion programme. Its monopoly stems from the sensitivity of the material involved: BWXT produces fuel containing 93% uranium-235, weapons-grade highly enriched uranium, whereas Centrus targets HALEU in the 5% to 25% uranium-235 band. That sensitivity brings extremely strict regulatory scrutiny and special security clearance requirements for employees, giving BWXT a strong competitive moat and high barriers to entry. In May 2026 BWXT was awarded a contract worth $1.4bn for the US naval nuclear propulsion programme.
What to watch
The pace at which new enrichment and fuel fabrication capacity comes online — in the United States, South Africa and elsewhere — will determine whether SMR deployment timelines hold. For now, fuel supply rather than reactor design looks like the gating item for the next wave of advanced nuclear.
This article was assisted by AI analysis. Please refer to the original source for official information.