TerraPower’s decision to sign a separate enrichment agreement with a South African company highlights the supply pressure building behind advanced reactor deployment. According to a source report, the company did not believe the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) could provide enough HALEU within the time window needed for its first reactor.

First-mover demand

TerraPower is developing an advanced reactor that requires HALEU fuel. Its concern reflects a broader timing mismatch: reactor developers need fuel before large-scale U.S. HALEU capacity comes online.

DOE expects about 21.2 metric tons of HALEU to be available by the end of 2028 and about 23.4 metric tons by the end of 2030. DOE’s 2024 assessment projected U.S. commercial HALEU annual demand at 50 metric tons by 2035 and about 500 metric tons by 2050.

Market signals

Market segmentation data show small modular reactors (SMRs) as the largest reactor-type segment for HALEU at 31.00% share with a 17.5% CAGR. Microreactors are the fastest-growing at 19.9%, while research reactors are the slowest at 11.2%.

Advanced reactor developers are the largest and fastest-growing end-user segment at 32.00% share and 20.2% CAGR, rising from USD 272.00 million to USD 1.72 billion. Government and defense account for 29.00%, nuclear utilities 26.00%, and research institutions 13.00%.

The report notes that growth is front-loaded by policy and back-loaded by reactor starts, with the market expected to shift from supply-led to demand-led growth in the early 2030s.

Supply-side response

Centrus completed production of the final 900 kilograms of HALEU under its demonstration contract in June 2026, bringing cumulative output to more than 1,900 kilograms. A new $900 million DOE contract requires a shift to commercial scale, with an initial build target of 12 metric tons per year and first new capacity expected online in 2029.

Urenco plans a HALEU facility in the United Kingdom with a capacity of about 10 metric tons per year, but supply is not expected until the early 2030s.

Those timelines explain why reactor developers are pursuing diversified fuel arrangements. For TerraPower, the South African enrichment agreement is a hedge against DOE supply uncertainty as it seeks to keep its first reactor on schedule.

This article was assisted by AI analysis. Please refer to the original source for official information.